General Market Review
The month of September was relatively calm with low volatility and only few notable macro events. The most important one came from the US, where GDP figures for Q2 2025 were revised up in a third instance to 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (annualized), which was 0.5% pt higher than the previous estimate. The upward revision was mainly driven by stronger consumer spending. This positive momentum could continue into the third quarter, as the GDPNow Data – published by Atlanta FED – is indicating an increase of 3.9% quarter-onquarter (annualized) for Q3 2025. In this environment, risk assets have performed well as the S&P 500 rose by +3.6% and NASDAQ by +5.5%. Overall, equity markets recorded a stronger than usual performance for a September-month. However, there was a clear distinction between the growth and value sectors. The rally in technology stocks was fueled by optimism about further rate cuts by the FED.
The US Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rate by 25 Bp to 4% (lower bound) and 4.25% (upper bound), in line with market expectations. This was the first rate cut since December 2024. The FED signalled caution and reiterated that the future interest rate path would depend on the data. Moreover, FED-chair Powell emphasized repeatedly that risks of the labor market to the downside would outweigh risks to the upside of inflation. This was again a rather dovish statement, leaning toward interest rate cuts to stabilize the labor market. As of September 30, a 97% probability of an October cut and a 78% probability of a December cut was priced in the market. This corresponds to an effective policy rate that would be 43 Bp lower at the end of the year, namely 3.66% compared to the current 4.09%.
In the US, the labour market was weaker as non-farm payrolls increased only by +22k in August from +73k in July. The unemployment rate was slightly higher at 4.3% in August. In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate was at 6.3%. In the US, consumer price inflation for the month of August was higher versus the prior month. Headline inflation has increased by +2.9% (y-o-y) whereas core inflation (excluding energy and food) came in unchanged at +3.1% (y-o-y). In the Eurozone, consumer price inflation figures for the month of August were unchanged versus the prior month. Headline inflation has increased by +2.0% and core-inflation has increased by +2.3%.
US 10-year treasury yields decreased by 8 Bp from 4.23% to 4.15%, whereas German 10-year bund yields have decreased as well by 1 Bp from 2.72% to 2.71%. The MSCI World Index increased by +3.21% (USD den.) and the MSCI Europe Index rose by +1.59% (EUR den.).
Energy and Transportation
Despite the fact, that energy agencies continue to expect excess oil supply in the months to come oil prices were nearly unchanged. Oil prices (Brent) slipped slightly back to $ 67 per barrel from $ 68 at the end of last month. The International Energy Agency’s most recent forecast implies a record surplus of 3.3mn barrels a day in 2026. Likewise, the US Energy Information Agency predicted a surplus of 2.1mn barrels per day in the second half of this year and 1.7mn barrels per day next year. These estimates are in line with forecasts of leading research firms such as Rystad. Crude prices have remained resilient this month even as the OPEC+ cartel has increased production. Excess oil supply has been stockpiled in Asia or put into floating storage. China has been aggressively buying crude for its strategic petroleum reserve. The Stoxx 600 Oil and Gas Index fell by -0,8% (EUR den.) at month end. In a generally positive market environment, the Dow Jones Transportation Average Index (USD) fell by -1.1%.
The aviation subsegment reversed its previous month gains. The US Global Jets (USD) Index fell by –6.6%. The three US-full-service carriers, Delta Airlines, United Airlines and American Airlines stock prices dropped by -8.1%. -8.1% and -15.9% respectively during the month as profitability concerns came up due to falling demand for domestic leisure travel and increased wage costs.
In the marine transportation segment, the Russell 2000 Marine Index gained by +0.9%. VLCC-rates (Very Large Crude Tanker) have increased further from $ 46k/day to $ 76k/day at month end. In the container segment the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell another -23% month-on month and -52% year-on-year. Capesize rates in the dry-bulk-segment have remained at elevated levels of around $ 27k/day.
Fund Performance
The fund performance of both the USD and EUR denominated share classes was slightly negative.
In the crude sector VLCC-Rates (Very Large Crude Carrier) have temporarily exceeded $100k/day. Regional differences in crude prices led to an increase in crude tanker bookings. Floating storage has seen a notable increase in September. At this point in time the term structure curve of the oil market is still in backwardation. However, continuous excess production by OPEC members could lead the term structure into contango, a situation, which could be supportive to the entire tanker sector. The Offshore Support Sector was negatively impacted by short term market softness, especially in the North Sea for both Platform Supply Vessels and Anchor Handlers. However, fundamentally the market is short of supply as more than 60% for anchor handler and 35% for platform supply vessels is older than 15 years. At the same time more than 48% of subsea vessels is older than 15 years. Order books in these segments are between 0% and 11% only.
The fund’s month end performance attribution was as follows. Within the shipping equity segment both long and short book had a positive contribution of +0.9% and +0.2%, respectively. Long positions in the crude/product and offshore supply segments contributed +1.3% and -0,4% respectively. Short positions in the container segment contributed +0.2%. In the long book the strongest performers were Frontline, International Seaways and Teekay Tanker. On the other hand, short positions in the freight services segment contributed a positive +0.1%. The long and short book in other transportation sectors including aviation was negative with a performance of -0.6% and -1.8% respectively. Within the energy segment, long positions in the oil and gas and the oil services segment had a positive contribution of +1.4% whereas short position had a negative contribution of -0.3%. Long positions in the renewable energy segment have contributed -0.2%. Overall hedging positions via short index futures had a negative effect of -0.1%.
For more information, you can find our latest Factsheet – September 2025.
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