General Market Review
November turned out to be a challenging month for risk assets, as investor sentiment weakened amid growing concerns about artificial intelligence and the broader technology sector. Market performance was mixed: the S&P 500 managed a modest gain of +0.2. Technology stocks underperformed, with the S&P 500 Growth Index posting a negative return of -0.93%, in contrast to the S&P 500 Value Index, which delivered a solid +1.69%. Corporate earnings in the United States continued to demonstrate resilience. The quarter is on track to deliver the strongest year-on-year earnings growth since Q4 2021, driven largely by significant upside surprises in the financial and healthcare sectors. On the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve did not hold an official FOMC meeting in November. However, the Beige Book released on November 26 highlighted softening consumer spending and a labor market that has lost momentum.
FED officials remain divided on whether to cut rates at the December meeting. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept its policy rate unchanged at 4% after a close vote, signaling that future rate cuts will depend on the evolution of inflation. This data-dependent approach mirrors that of the FED. Overall, global monetary policies continue to diverge across major central banks. Labor market developments also reflected this divergence.
In the United States, non-farm payroll data was not released due to the government shutdown, though the Beige Book pointed to a cooling labor market. In the Eurozone, the unemployment rate remained stable at 6.3%. Inflation trends were mixed. In the United States, consumer price inflation data for October was not published, but producer prices rose slightly compared to the previous month.
In the Eurozone, October consumer price inflation declined relative to September. Headline inflation increased by +2.1% year-on-year, while core inflation (excluding energy and food) rose by +2.4% year-on-year. Bond markets reflected these dynamics. US 10-year Treasury yields fell by 7 basis points, from 4.08% to 4.01%, while German 10-year Bund yields rose by 6 basis points, from 2.63% to 2.69%. Equity indices showed modest gains: 4
the MSCI World Index rose by +0.28% (USD-denominated), and the MSCI Europe Index advanced by +0.91% (EUR-denominated).
Energy and Transportation
Brent crude prices extended their downward trajectory in November, ending the month roughly -3% lower. Throughout the year, the oil market has been pulled between concerns of a supply squeeze — intensified by U.S. sanctions on two major Russian oil companies in October — and warnings of a longer-term oversupply, driven by rising U.S. shale production and slowing global economic growth. Notably, the three leading international agencies monitoring crude markets published their widest divergence in demand forecasts for 2026, with estimates differing by 1.8 million barrels per day — the largest gap since 2002.
Brent crude reached $82.63 per barrel in January before resuming its decline, briefly spiking again in June amid Middle East tensions. By the end of November, the benchmark was trading near $63.20.
In this softer price environment, exploration and production firms recorded losses. In contrast, integrated oil majors such as BP and Total delivered solid monthly gains of +4.1% and +5.3%, respectively. BP’s quarterly earnings showed an underlying profit of $2.2 billion, broadly unchanged despite a -14% year-on-year drop in average oil prices to $69 per barrel in Q3. Analysts had expected BP to be particularly vulnerable to weaker prices, yet the company demonstrated resilience thanks to its diversified portfolio across production and refining. The Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas Index rose another 2.5% (EUR-denominated) by month-end.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained +4.6% in November. Aviation led the sector, with the U.S. Global Jets Index up +6.8%, followed by the Russell 2000 Marine Index, which advanced 2.4%.
VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates climbed from $122k/day to $135k/day by month-end, supported by rising global “oil-on-water” volumes, which increased from 1.3 million to 1.4 million barrels. China and India continued shifting away from Russian oil transported via shadow fleets, favoring mainstream compliant tankers. Despite a strong forward freight market, crude and product tanker stocks fell in late November amid risk-off sentiment tied to renewed Russia-Ukraine peace speculation.
In container shipping, the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped another -10% month-on-month, leaving it -38% lower year-on-year. Meanwhile, the dry bulk segment saw strength: Capesize rates surged from $24k/day to $37k/day, driven by heightened demand for larger vessels. Increased bauxite exports from West Africa to China provided additional support for this market.
Fund Performance
The fund generated positive returns across both USD- and EUR-denominated share classes in November. In response to U.S. government initiatives aimed at resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the fund further reduced its exposure to the tanker segment. Long positions in International Seaways and Teekay Tankers were cut back from portfolio weights of +7% and +4.8% to +3.5% and +2.2%, at share prices of $53.7 and $61.2 respectively. At the same time, a new position of around +2.2% of NAV was established in Okeanis EcoTankers through a secondary market offering, in which $115 million was raised to partially finance two modern Suezmax tankers from Daehan Shipbuilding. These vessels, expected to be delivered in January 2026, will expand the company’s eco-friendly fleet. Shares were purchased at the offering price of $35.50 on November 19, approximately 10% below the closing price of the previous day. Despite strong fundamentals in tanker freight rates, sentiment in this segment may soften as prospects for an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict improve.
Performance attribution at month-end showed that within the shipping segment, the long book contributed positively with +1.8%, while the short book detracted -0.8%. Long positions in dry bulk, crude/product and offshore supply added +0.7%, +0.5% and +0.6% respectively, whereas short positions in the container segment weighed on results with a negative -0.8%. Navios Maritime Partners was the strongest performer among the long positions, while short positions in freight services detracted -0.7%. In other transportation sectors, the long book contributed +0.4% and the short book reduced performance by -1.6%. Within aviation, long positions added +0.4% and short positions contributed +0.5%.
In the energy segment, long positions in oil and gas exploration and production recorded a loss of -0.6%. These losses were partly offset by gains of 0.4% from short positions in the nuclear sector. The oil services segment contributed a modest positive +0.1%, while renewable energy added a stronger +0.9%. Overall, hedging positions through short index futures had only a negligible impact on performance.
For more information, you can find our latest Factsheet – November 2025.
Seahawk Investments GmbH
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