General Market Review
Global equity markets began 2026 on a positive note. Equities posted gains in January, with market leadership—similar to late December—broadening further and no longer concentrated solely in U.S. technology stocks. The strongest performance came from Asia and emerging markets, while the major U.S. indices delivered more muted results.
As expected, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep its policy rate unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, marking a pause after three rate cuts in 2025. The Fed continued to signal a balanced view between economic risks and inflationary pressures, without providing clear guidance on the timing of the next adjustment.
Market expectations for the first rate cut have now shifted to early summer, whereas earlier hopes for a March easing have diminished.
The U.S. economy remained resilient at the start of the year, although leading indicators pointed to a more fragile labor market. The unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.4% in December, while job gains remained subdued. Meanwhile, inflation showed signs of stabilization: December’s consumer price index rose 2.7% year‑on‑year, indicating moderate progress toward the Fed’s target.
In the Eurozone, headline inflation eased to 2.0% in December 2025 (from 2.1% in the previous month), while core inflation stood at 2.3%. This supports expectations of a more stable inflation trajectory in 2026 and aligns with the broader trend of declining price pressures.
Yields on 10‑year U.S. Treasuries increased by 6 basis points from 4.17% to 4.23%, whereas 10‑year German Bund yields remained nearly unchanged, slipping 1 bp from 2.86% to 2.85%.
The MSCI World Index rose by +2.24% in USD terms, while the MSCI Europe Index advanced +3.11% in EUR terms.
Energy and Transportation
The price of Brent crude rose sharply in January. Toward the end of the month, U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his threats against Iran. Oil prices increased by roughly $10 per barrel, climbing from $60.85 to $70.69 by month‑end. Any potential attack could disrupt oil shipments from Iran and possibly the broader Gulf region, which plays a critical role in global crude supply.
The Stoxx 600 Oil & Gas Index advanced by +9.25% (EUR‑denominated) by the end of the month.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average gained +5.5% in January. Within the index, the aviation sector lagged, with the U.S. Global Jets Index slipping -0.2%. In contrast, shipping companies saw strong momentum, led by the Russell 2000 Marine Transportation Index surging by 20.7%.
The crude tanker segment was the strongest performer. Freight rates reached new highs even though crude and “dirty” petroleum product volumes dropped by approximately 2 million barrels per day in January. Tightening in the commercial tanker fleet—driven by last year’s significant shift of vessels into the shadow fleet—has contributed to substantial rate volatility. After a brief dip at the beginning of the month, VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates rebounded sharply, rising from roughly USD 40k per day to USD 120k per day by the end of January. Additionally, following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leadership, Venezuelan crude trades have been shifting toward non‑sanctioned commercial vessels.
In contrast, the container freight market continued to show weakness. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index fell by -21% in January and is now down -31.7% year‑on‑year. A reopening of the Red Sea passage, combined with a substantial oversupply of container vessels, is expected to put further downward pressure on freight rates.
Fund Performance
The fund delivered positive returns in January across both its USD‑ and EUR‑denominated share classes. It was a strong month overall, with profits generated in the shipping segments—particularly crude tankers, dry bulk, and offshore support. The offshore support segment benefited significantly from the sharp recovery in the oil market, which was driven by rising geopolitical tensions.
At month‑end, performance attribution showed that within the energy segment, long positions in oil and gas exploration and production, oil services, and renewable energy contributed gains of +1.6%, +1.5%, and +0.7%, respectively. The strongest contributors in oil services were TGS and Saipem. In the renewables segment, Vestas Wind Systems advanced by another +10.0%, supported by strong expectations going into the new year. Short positions within the energy segment detracted -1.9%, with oil and gas as well as nuclear‑related shorts accounting for -1.0% and -0.9%, respectively.
In the shipping segment, the long book fully recovered the previous month’s losses. Long positions in dry bulk, crude/product tankers, and offshore supply delivered returns of +1.1%, +1.6%, and +1.4%, respectively. Short positions in the container segment contributed negatively at -1.8%. Overall, long positions in shipping added +4.0%, while short positions detracted -1.8%.
In the aviation segment, both long and short positions had only marginal impact, contributing +0.2% and -0.2%, respectively.
For more information, you can find our latest Factsheet – January 2026.
Seahawk Investments GmbH
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